AccuWeather meteorologists have issued their forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with the outlet predicting 11 to 16 named storms.
Of these, four to seven are expected to become hurricanes, and between two and four could become major ones—i.e., Category 3 and above.
Three to five direct landfalls could occur, but the 2026 season is expected to come in below the 10‑year average for both overall storm activity and hurricanes, it said.
"Even if it's expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States," cautioned AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
DaSilva told Newsweek that AccuWeather analyzed 14 years with similar atmospheric conditions to this coming hurricane season to produce its forecast.
Forecasters gave the central and eastern Gulf Coast, as well as the Carolinas and parts of the Virginia coastline, a higher-than-historical-average risk of significant tropical impacts, while central and southern Texas received a lower-than-average risk.
Among the factors that could affect activity this year is El Niño—a periodic climate phenomenon that influences weather patterns and sea surface temperatures.
This could contribute to higher levels of disruptive wind shear and reduced storm activity later in the season, AccuWeather said.
AccuWeather previously told Newsweek there was a 15 percent chance of a more intense "Super El Niño" developing by late in the hurricane season. Should this occur, it said Atlantic hurricane season activity could be further reduced.
The outlet reported that El Niño seasons typically see around 10 named storms and five hurricanes.
"Water temperatures across much of the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are forecast to reach exceptionally warm levels again this summer. That heat extends hundreds of feet below the surface, providing additional fuel for storms," DaSilva said. "As a result, we are very concerned about the risk of rapid intensification this hurricane season."
AccuWeather also warned that storms could develop close to the U.S. in the Gulf, western Caribbean or western Atlantic off the Southeast U.S. coast.
"Storms that form within a few hundred miles of the coast can leave people, businesses, and officials with less time to prepare and evacuate," DaSilva said. "These 'homegrown development' storms that spin up near the U.S. coast can pose bigger threats with a lot less time to react, compared to storms that form off the coast of Africa and take a week or more to trek across the open Atlantic."
It also cautioned that despite fewer storms, expected potential remains for direct U.S. impacts in 2026.
"There is no reason to let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause major damage, disruption and heartache," DaSilva said. "Review your insurance coverage, safety plans, and local evacuation routes now. Make sure your emergency supplies are stocked up."
The Atlantic hurricane season begins in June and runs through November.
Update 3/25/26, 12:34 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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